Top Opportunities

Ranked by Composite Probability & Risk/Reward. Top 10 are Buys.

Rank Ticker Price Score Probability Momentum Stop Loss News Factors (Hist / Regime / Opt)
#1 MU Micron $455.07 0.721 68.0% +58.7%
$364.06
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 68.0% R: None% O: N/A%
#2 GEV GE $1002.75 0.704 59.3% +43.7%
$802.2
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 59.3% R: None% O: N/A%
#3 LRCX Lam $267.6 0.691 65.2% +44.1%
$214.08
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 65.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#4 CAT Caterpillar, $794.65 0.69 62.5% +28.7%
$635.72
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 62.5% R: None% O: N/A%
#5 AMAT Applied $396.94 0.687 62.1% +38.4%
$317.55
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 62.1% R: None% O: N/A%
#6 FDX FedEx $392.38 0.655 44.3% +37.0%
$323.24
(-17.6%)
neu
H: 44.3% R: None% O: N/A%
#7 INTC Intel $68.5 0.653 51.0% +58.3%
$54.8
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 51.0% R: None% O: N/A%
#8 GOOG Alphabet $339.4 0.647 54.9% +17.6%
$277.61
(-18.2%)
neu
H: 54.9% R: None% O: N/A%
#9 GOOGL Alphabet $341.68 0.647 55.3% +18.3%
$276.27
(-19.1%)
neu
H: 55.3% R: None% O: N/A%
#10 TXN Texas $229.82 0.623 46.2% +23.4%
$185.25
(-19.4%)
neu
H: 46.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#11 C Citigroup, $132.18 0.616 45.5% +23.1%
$105.74
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 45.5% R: None% O: N/A%
#12 USB U.S. $56.93 0.61 43.1% +13.5%
$50.07
(-12.0%)
neu
H: 43.1% R: None% O: N/A%
#13 GS Goldman $925.95 0.605 48.2% +11.0%
$759.9
(-17.9%)
neu
H: 48.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#14 MRK Merck $119.07 0.604 37.2% +20.3%
$104.99
(-11.8%)
neu
H: 37.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#15 USD ProShares $71.21 0.603 54.2% +30.9%
$56.97
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 54.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#16 GM General $81.32 0.602 43.1% +19.5%
$65.94
(-18.9%)
neu
H: 43.1% R: None% O: N/A%
#17 AMD Advanced $278.39 0.601 51.4% +21.9%
$222.71
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 51.4% R: None% O: N/A%
#18 RTX RTX $196.42 0.599 44.3% +8.5%
$171.28
(-12.8%)
neu
H: 44.3% R: None% O: N/A%
#19 AVGO Broadcom $406.54 0.596 49.0% +16.7%
$325.23
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 49.0% R: None% O: N/A%
#20 BK The $135.1 0.589 34.8% +18.0%
$119.55
(-11.5%)
neu
H: 34.8% R: None% O: N/A%
#21 MS Morgan $188.82 0.589 43.9% +11.4%
$155.58
(-17.6%)
neu
H: 43.9% R: None% O: N/A%
#22 JNJ Johnson $234.18 0.588 39.1% +10.4%
$215.77
(-7.9%)
neu
H: 39.1% R: None% O: N/A%
#23 COP ConocoPhillips $116.04 0.579 38.7% +16.7%
$94.45
(-18.6%)
neu
H: 38.7% R: None% O: N/A%
#24 LMT Lockheed $592.19 0.577 40.7% +6.7%
$510.92
(-13.7%)
neu
H: 40.7% R: None% O: N/A%
#25 NVDA NVIDIA $201.68 0.565 39.9% +10.1%
$162.6
(-19.4%)
neu
H: 39.9% R: None% O: N/A%
#26 AAPL Apple $270.23 0.561 35.2% +7.5%
$235.98
(-12.7%)
neu
H: 35.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#27 CSCO Cisco $86.25 0.561 32.0% +16.8%
$72.63
(-15.8%)
neu
H: 32.0% R: None% O: N/A%
#28 WMT Walmart $127.5 0.559 32.8% +11.1%
$110.6
(-13.3%)
neu
H: 32.8% R: None% O: N/A%
#29 AMGN Amgen $355.3 0.555 30.8% +10.8%
$313.84
(-11.7%)
neu
H: 30.8% R: None% O: N/A%
#30 UPS United $106.44 0.555 31.2% +12.1%
$92.35
(-13.2%)
neu
H: 31.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#31 XOM Exxon $146.44 0.555 33.6% +14.9%
$119.91
(-18.1%)
neu
H: 33.6% R: None% O: N/A%
#32 BMY Bristol-Myers $60.17 0.552 26.9% +19.2%
$51.7
(-14.1%)
neu
H: 26.9% R: None% O: N/A%
#33 HON Honeywell $233.55 0.55 30.4% +11.1%
$203.56
(-12.8%)
neu
H: 30.4% R: None% O: N/A%
#34 AXP American $331.69 0.548 36.4% +1.1%
$287.66
(-13.3%)
neu
H: 36.4% R: None% O: N/A%
#35 BAC Bank $53.91 0.546 33.2% +6.3%
$46.49
(-13.8%)
neu
H: 33.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#36 GILD Gilead $137.64 0.545 29.2% +9.2%
$121.83
(-11.5%)
neu
H: 29.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#37 AMZN Amazon.com, $250.56 0.54 32.4% +12.6%
$201.27
(-19.7%)
neu
H: 32.4% R: None% O: N/A%
#38 DE Deere $590.46 0.54 26.9% +16.7%
$496.33
(-15.9%)
neu
H: 26.9% R: None% O: N/A%
#39 EMR Emerson $146.35 0.539 37.2% +7.5%
$117.08
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 37.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#40 CVX Chevron $183.99 0.538 31.2% +9.6%
$153.83
(-16.4%)
neu
H: 31.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#41 NEE NextEra $91.98 0.537 29.2% +6.1%
$83.55
(-9.2%)
neu
H: 29.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#42 GE GE $304.13 0.535 43.9% -0.8%
$243.3
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 43.9% R: None% O: N/A%
#43 JPM JP $310.29 0.534 31.2% +2.8%
$272.0
(-12.3%)
neu
H: 31.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#44 SPG Simon $206.23 0.53 25.3% +12.0%
$178.31
(-13.5%)
neu
H: 25.3% R: None% O: N/A%
#45 PLTR Palantir $146.39 0.529 53.8% -11.6%
$117.11
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 53.8% R: None% O: N/A%
#46 UNP Union $251.14 0.524 24.1% +9.1%
$226.16
(-9.9%)
neu
H: 24.1% R: None% O: N/A%
#47 LLY Eli $927.03 0.521 32.8% +2.2%
$760.76
(-17.9%)
neu
H: 32.8% R: None% O: N/A%
#48 IBM International $253.47 0.52 37.5% -7.5%
$211.37
(-16.6%)
neu
H: 37.5% R: None% O: N/A%
#49 COF Capital $206.47 0.519 34.0% -0.0%
$168.55
(-18.4%)
neu
H: 34.0% R: None% O: N/A%
#50 TMO Thermo $526.6 0.515 34.4% -2.6%
$432.0
(-18.0%)
neu
H: 34.4% R: None% O: N/A%

Score Logic

  • 40% Probability: Weighted avg of Hist, Parametric, Regime & Options models.
  • 25% Momentum: Trend strength across 5, 21, 63, and 126-day lookbacks.
  • 15% Volatility: Penalty for high annualized vol; preference for stability.
  • 20% Quality & RS: Sector strength and fundamental stability factors.

Risk Rules

  • Dynamic Stops: Set at roughly 2x Monthly Volatility (5-20% range).
  • Liquidity Filter: Only S&P 100/Nasdaq 100 large caps to avoid slippage.
  • Regime Check: Probability weights adjust based on VIX (Fear Index) levels.

Execution

  • Rotation: Rebalance monthly. Replace if rank drops below Top 20.
  • Allocation: Equal weight top picks or Kelly Criterion sizing based on Probability.
  • Exit: Hit Stop Loss OR Rank drops significantly at month-end.

Technical Glossary

Composite Prob

A "super-model" combining basic historical stats, normal distribution curves, volatility-regime conditional probabilities, and options market implied odds.

Regime Cond.

"What usually happens to this stock when the VIX is at this level?" Filters out strategies that fail in high-volatility environments.

Options Implied

Extracts the market's forward-looking probability of profit from Call Option prices. "Smart money" positioning.

Momentum Score

Pure relative strength. How fast is this moving compared to itself (Time-Series) and the market (Cross-Sectional) over 1-6 months.

Strategy Transparency

Strengths

  • Multi-Factor Robustness: Doesn't rely on just one signal (like simple RSI). Blends math, price, and fear.
  • Regime Aware: The only strategy that effectively says "Sit out" or "Change expectations" when VIX spikes.
  • Forward Looking: Incorporates Options market data which often leads price action.

Weaknesses

  • Lag: As a monthly strategy, it is slow to react to sudden mid-month flash crashes.
  • Data Limits: Options data for some tickers may be illiquid, reducing the accuracy of that specific factor.
  • Complexity: Harder to manually audit than a simple "Buy if Price > SMA200" rule.