Market Cycle Analysis
This dashboard tracks the Relative Strength (RS) of each sector versus the S&P 500 (SPY). Sectors rotate clockwise through four phases: Improving → Leading → Weakening → Lagging.
LEADING
Strong Trend + Outperforming
XLV
Healthcare
3M: +10.86%
1M: -3.98%
$156.05
+0.16%
WEAKENING
Outperforming but Losing Momentum
XLK
Technology
3M: +0.79%
1M: +2.23%
$146.53
+0.16%
IMPROVING
Underperforming but Gaining Momentum
XLB
Materials
Top Pick
3M: -0.5%
1M: +2.76%
$46.11
+0.59%
XLF
Financials
Top Pick
3M: -1.04%
1M: +3.6%
$55.62
-0.2%
XLY
Discretionary
Top Pick
3M: -2.47%
1M: +2.32%
$122.05
-0.44%
XLP
Staples
3M: -3.96%
1M: -2.05%
$78.23
+0.14%
XLC
Comm. Services
3M: -4.47%
1M: +0.95%
$117.97
-0.1%
XLRE
Real Estate
3M: -7.55%
1M: -4.13%
$40.52
+0.2%
LAGGING
Underperforming & Weak Trend
XLI
Industrials
3M: -1.27%
1M: +1.22%
$157.21
-0.18%
XLU
Utilities
3M: -5.74%
1M: -5.92%
$42.78
-0.07%
XLE
Energy
3M: -8.21%
1M: -2.5%
$44.2
-0.38%
Strategy Transparency
Methodology
This dashboard implements a Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) methodology. It plots sectors based on their relative strength (RS) versus the market benchmark (SPY).
- Leading Strong uptrend & outperforming SPY. The ideal place for long positions.
- Weakening Still outperforming, but momentum is fading. Often a signal to take profits.
- Lagging Weak trend & underperforming. Avoid these sectors.
- Improving Momentum is picking up, although still negative vs SPY. Good for "bottom fishing".
Strengths & Weaknesses
Why it
works
- Defensive: Naturally rotates out of crashing sectors (like Tech in '22).
- Tactical Alpha: The 1M Signal (Top Pick) historically outperforms SPY by reacting faster to new trends.
Risks
- Bull Market Drag: In a strong "everything rally", rotation strategies often lag buy-and-hold.
- Whipsaw: False breakouts in "Improving" sectors can lead to losses if the trend fails.